Experts estimate low voter turnout for election

By Brittany Whitley

Published: May 31, 2008

Although officials are predicting a 50-percent voter turnout in the November General Election, initial estimates for Tuesday’s local primary are not so high.

“The turnout will be less than 10 percent in Lee County on Tuesday,” Lee County Probate Judge Bill English said. “I wish more people would go vote.”

English, County Commissioner John Andrew Harris and local Republican Party Chairman Rod Herring said voter turnout would be low because of lack of interest.

“(This is) kind of a low-interest time,” Herring said.

“My estimation is it will be kind of small,” said Harris, a Democrat who is involved in the local Barrack Obama campaign.

Harris said the lack of interest is disappointing because local primaries are important. Winning candidates make important decisions for the county, he said.

One area of the county where voter turnout may be slightly higher is Smiths Station.

Lee County election Manager Tim Parson said contested county commission and school board races could drive turnout there as high as 20 percent.

Republicans Raymond Grier and Gary Long are running for the County Commission District 3 seat. Republicans Milford Burkhalter and Mark Tomlin are seeking the District 1 seat on the Lee County Board of Education.

Despite an expected low turnout, the work that goes into a local election is roughly the same as in a presidential primary.

When past presidential and local elections fell on the same year, the primaries were held together in June. Herring said when the two primaries were combined, more people voted because of interest in the national race.

This year, the presidential primary was held in February to make Alabama more important in national politics.

Splitting the primaries did not help the state that much, Herring said. Other states also moved their primaries to an earlier date as well, negating Alabama’s advantage. And now, Alabama is holding local primaries, without the added draw of a presidential primary to lure voters.

However, poll workers still have to be trained, voting machines prepared and voter lists printed and sent to polling locations, English said. In short, splitting the primaries created more work for the county.
Corinne Hurst, Lee County circuit clerk, agreed with English.

“It’s double the work and double the expense,” she said. “We have to hold two elections instead of one.”

The main difference in the two elections is the number of ballots ordered, English and Parson said. There also may be a slightly different number of election workers.

Although the presidential primary is 100 percent reimbursed by the state, Alice Hodge, deputy county administrator, said holding two primaries still costs Lee County more money.

“Even though we get 100 percent reimbursement for the presidential primary, other costs are involved, which includes set-up costs prior to an election and take-down costs after the election,” Hodge said.
The cost of manpower also increases expenses, she said.

“Our Maintenance Department is responsible for delivery of voting machines to each polling location. Our information services department is responsible for testing the machines, getting all the materials ready for the voting locations and delivery to all voting locations and other election responsibilities,” Hodge said.

“The state reimburses the county 100 percent as long as there are no local candidates on the ballot,” Hodge said. “When there are local candidates on the ballot, the state only reimburses 50 percent of the costs to hold the election.”

Poll workers are paid $75 per day, Hodge said. The flat fee does not include mileage.

There are differing opinions on whether record high gas prices will affect turnout.

English said he hoped gas prices would not affect turnout, especially since polling places are no more than 5 or 6 miles from voters’ homes.

“(It is) not a long drive for anybody,” English said.

Herring agreed.

“I’ve heard a lot of people complain about gas prices but not about it affecting what they’re doing,” he said. “That’s (gas prices) not a good excuse - I think.”

Hurst said she would not be surprised if worries over gas kept people home.

“As gas has nears the $4 level, we have seen people start to be very cautious with their travel,” she said. “People are consolidating their gasoline.”

Harris said he believed gas prices would affect voter turnout.

“Not that many people will come out (on Tuesday), but they will be ready for November.” he said.