2009 Previews: Oregon State

We go to Oregon State for Preview No. 17. Previews of all 65 BCS conference schools, plus Notre Dame and state schools, in no particular order, will run daily through Aug. 22.

Oregon State has been a very, very weird team over the years.

They almost always start slow, then suddenly pull off an upset and finish strong.

The same was true last year. After losing to Stanford and getting blown out at Penn State, the Beavers beat USC and would have won the Pac-10 if they could’ve beaten rival Oregon in the season finale.

This year, much of the offensive corps is back, but they’ve got problems on the offensive line and even bigger problems on the defense.

Quarterback Lyle Moevao had offseason surgery, but is expected to be back in time for the fall. Backup Sean Canfield is capable, so they should be OK there.

They also have shifty little running back Jacquizz Rodgers back. He was named the conference offensive player of the year as a true freshman after rushing for more than 1200 yards and receiving for nearly 250.

The wide receivers are a little untested, but capable.

The offensive line returns three starters, but lost several capable backups. That might not be good when you’re protecting a just surgically repaired quarterback.

Defensively, things are ugly.

Only three starters are back. Three-fourths of the defensive line and all the secondary will be new.

The Beavers will have to outscore people, at least early. But the early schedule shapes up well before a brutal conference schedule.

Here it is:

Sept. 5: Portland State
Next

Sept. 12: at UNLV
A tricky game, but one they should win. Unless of course they pull their early season hijinx again.

Sept. 19: Cincinnati
The Beavers got torched in Cincinnati two years ago. They might return the favor this time.

Sept. 26: Arizona
The Wildcats are back to respectability. This might go into the toss-up category.

Oct. 3: at Arizona State
Tough road trip to a team that should be improving.

Oct. 10: Stanford
Another one that won’t be easy. They should get the win though.

Oct. 24: at USC
The Trojans should be licking their chops for this one.

Oct. 31: UCLA
The Bruins might be starting to hit their stride around this time, but having them at home should be enough for a win.

Nov. 7: at California
The Beavers got a big win over the Bears at home last year. Don’t look for them to repeat it on the road.

Nov. 14: Washington
First surefire win in a while. I never thought I would write that sentence in regards to Oregon State beating Washington.

Nov. 21: at Washington State
It will be cold and OSU will roll.

Dec. 3: at Oregon
Weird things happen in this series, like OSU allowing 65 points at home to the Ducks last year. OSU will have a good shot to win this one.

With a more experienced defense this could actually be a really good season. But with those conference road trips and the areas they’re going to have to replace, it’ll probably be yet another 7-5 or 8-4 season.

2009 Previews: Michigan

We go to the artists formerly known as one of college football’s premier programs, Michigan, for Preview No. 16. Previews of all 65 BCS conference schools, plus Notre Dame and state schools, in no particular order, will run daily through Aug. 22.

Last year’s Michigan team may have been one of the best examples ever of Murphy’s Law in college football.

Everything that could have possibly gone wrong did, and did so spectacularly.

They lost to Toledo. They ranked 109th in the NCAA in total offense and 67th in total defense. They lost by 35 to Ohio State. Were it not for a miracle comeback win over Wisconsin in the fourth game of the season they could have easily been 2-10.

But here’s the thing: They also could have pretty easily been a .500 team, despite how bad they actually were.

The transition to Rich Rodriguez’s spread system was incredibly painful, and will remain painful for at least this year, if not more. But, if all goes as planned, the program will be much better off in the long run for it.

This year’s team should be a lot better, possibly even significantly so, but a lot has to break right.

The most important area is, of course, quarterback. Nick Sheridan and the rest of last year’s pupu platter were beyond awful. Sheridan is back, but isn’t exactly likely to be the one seeing the field.

Hotshot fresman Tate Forcier was in for spring practice, and despite his lack of experience will probably be the guy. Fellow freshman Denard Robinson will probably see the field as well.

Whoever is under center has plenty of weapons: Running backs Brandon Minor, Carlos Brown, Michael Shaw and Vincent Smith will all get plenty of carries. And all the wide receivers, though they were not very good, are back as well, and should improve with another year in the system.

Four of five starters are back on the offensive line.

The defense is probably going to struggle, though. Only five starters are back from last year’s group, which was actually not all that bad but wore down because the offense was so unspeakably horrible (sound familiar, Auburn fans?). New defensive coordinator, former Syracuse head coach Greg “Gerg” Robinson, should help out quite a bit, but he’s going to have his work cut out for them.

The goal for this year, as crazy as this is to say for a team that had 40 straight winning seasons, is to get to a bowl. And it’s within reach, but they’re going to have to pull a mild upset somewhere.

Here’s the schedule:

Sept. 5: Western Michigan
The Broncos aren’t a bad team, so sleepwalking through this isn’t an option (the Wolverines really don’t have that option anywhere this year). But they absolutely should win here.

Sept. 12: Notre Dame
The Irish are a better team, but Michigan, assuming they improve as much as I think they should, will have a shot here.

Sept. 19: Eastern Michigan
W

Sept. 26: Indiana
It’s crazy to think Michigan is closer to Indiana than Ohio State, but they should get the win here.

Oct. 3: at Michigan State
Little brother gets a second win in a row in the series.

Oct. 10: at Iowa
Assuming the Hawkeyes aren’t all in jail they should win this one.

Oct. 17: Delaware State
Delaware State actually forfeited a game it had previously scheduled to get this paycheck. The hilarious thing would be if they pulled an Appalachian State (don’t bet on it)

Oct. 24: Penn State
The Nittany Lions finally got over the hump in beating Michigan last year. Barring something weird happening, they should make it two in a row.

Oct. 31: at Illinois
A win here is possible, but the Illini are probably too fast right now for a team in rebuilding mode like this.

Nov. 7: Purdue
The Boilermakers just aren’t very good.

Nov. 14: at Wisconsin
If Michigan wants to make a bowl, they have to win this one.

Nov. 21: Ohio State
Ohio State is a much, much better team. But, if Michigan does improve, if they hit their stride over the course of the year and if everything breaks right, a win here is a slight possibility.

If Michigan is going to get to six wins, they’re going to have to beat Notre Dame or Wisconsin. And I think they can beat one of them.

2009 Previews: Louisville

Feeling a little Kragthorped? That’s because we’re heading to Louisville for Preview No. 15. Previews of all 65 BCS conference schools, plus Notre Dame and state schools, in no particular order, will run daily through Aug. 22.

Louisville was one of those amazing success stories just a few years ago.

A little brother school in its own state, the Cardinals had had big success under John L. Smith and even bigger success under Bobby “the disingenuous drifter” Petrino.

When Petrino bolted for his ill-fated stint with the Falcons, the Cardinals brought in hot commodity Steve Kragthorpe from Tulsa.

And, as my intro said, his name has quickly become a verb.

No coach in the country is in more danger heading into this season, and I kind of have a feeling he won’t be able to save his job. And just for added pressure, Kragthorpe named himself offensive coordinator.

The Cardinals have only 10 starters back, only one of whom, reigning Big East Rookie of the Year running back Victor Anderson, merited extended mention in any preseason publication.

They also have to replace quarterback Hunter Cantwell, and none of the potential replacements have thrown a pass for Louisville.

The offensive line must replace three starters, but the wide receiver corps is in good shape, which might not matter if the Cardinals don’t find a quarterback.

Over the past two years the Cardinals’ only saving grace has been an ability to outscore opponents, but that doesn’t appear to be in the offing this year.

The defense has only five starters back and has its third defensive coordinator in three years.

This is not shaping up to be a good year in Louisville.

Here’s the schedule:

Sept. 5: Indiana State
They’ll be over .500 for a while, at least.

Sept. 19: at Kentucky
They’re staring a third straight loss to the Wildcats right in the face.

Sept. 26: at Utah
Utah won’t be quite as good this year, but they’ve got enough to win this one at home.

Oct. 2: Pittsburgh
Catching the Fightin’ Wannstaches napping is always possible, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Oct. 10: Southern Miss
Renewing an old rivalry from the days of Independents and Conference USA. And they had better win this one if they hope to go bowling.

Oct. 17: at Connecticut
Another must-win, but the Huskies do have two wins in a row in this series.

Oct. 24: at Cincinnati
The Bearcats aren’t totally there talent-wise, but they’re much better coached than the Cardinals.

Oct. 31: Arkansas State
A respite from a long string of tough games.

Nov. 7: at West Virginia
These aren’t the Mountaineers we came to know and love, but they’ve got another year in them before it all goes to pot.

Nov. 14: Syracuse
If Kragthorpe isn’t fired or “resigned” already, a third straight loss to the awful, awful Orange will definitely do it. But they should win this one, and better win it, too.

Nov. 21: at South Florida
The Bulls are primed for a big year.

Nov. 28: Rutgers
As are the Scarlet Knights.

Pour out a 40 for our homey Kragthorpe, because I don’t see any way the Cards do better than 5-7. And it could be worse.

‘I’m on a pilgrimage to see a moose. Praise Marty Moose!‘

If only Wally World were still open. Or ever existed. We’d probably be on our way right now.

That’s right, after scrapping together as much news as we possibly could for the past couple slow months on the Auburn beat, we’re finally getting the heck out of Dodge and going on a little vacay.

And just like Clark Griswold, we believe that getting there is half the fun. So we’re taking our own version of the Antarctic blue Super Sports Wagon with C.B. and optional rally fun pack and hitting up a number of destinations.

There are plenty of “theres” on this three-week, furlough-infused extravaganza. We’ll be going there, there, there, there, flying out to there, then back to there, before we rekindle some memories there and make our way back here.

We’ll be back just in time for SEC Media Days, which is the official kickoff to a five-or-so-month stretch where we don’t plan on taking a day off. Until then, keep up with this guy, this guy and even this guy for all your Auburn news.

We’ll be too busy trying to get by when we have to trade in our sports wagon for the Wagon Queen Family Truckster.

2009 Previews: LSU

The smell of corndogs fills the air as we head to LSU for Preview No. 14. Previews of all 65 BCS conference schools, plus Notre Dame and state schools, in no particular order, will run daily through Aug. 22

Esteemed O-A News sports editor Mike Szvetitz and I were discussing the other day the various ways coaches have made things difficult for reporters over the past decade or so.

Closing off access, not talking to reporters as much, misleading information and the like.

This led to a discussion of something new Auburn coach Gene Chizik often says in his rare appearances with the media.

“I’m just trying to win football games.“

An admirable goal for a coach, to be sure. But is it really so hard you can’t take five minutes to talk to a reporter? Or to just try to live the life of a normal human for a moment?

All this is to say, winning football games is definitely not easy, but it can’t be that hard. Les Miles has won 70 of them.

The Mad Hatter is back for his fifth season in Baton Rouge, coming off a disappointing but not totally unexpected 8-5 season in 2008.

But there’s plenty of reason for optimism, and it starts at quarterback.

After rotting on the bench for the majority of the year while Jarrett Lee and Andrew Hatch submarined the season all by themselves, Jordan Jefferson looked fantastic in the loss to Arkansas (which wasn’t his fault) and the throttling of Georgia Tech in the Chick-fil-A Bowl (I will give Miles this: Give him a solid month to prepare and he will destroy you, just ask Larry Coker, Charlie Weis, Jim Tressel and Paul Johnson).

Jefferson is back for his sophomore year and while not officially the starter, I doubt you’ll see Mr. Seven Pick-Sixes again.

Bruising running back Charles Scott and solid wide receiver Brandon LaFell are also back, giving Jefferson plenty of options.

The Bayou Bengals do have to replace a couple starters on the offensive line, but the line hasn’t been a problem for them in quite a while, so I doubt it will be this year.

Defensively, there’s a bit of work to do.

The Tigers must replace No. 3 NFL draft pick Tyson Jackson and two other starters on the line, but they’ve also churned out defensive lineme like no one’s business over the years.

The linebacking corps and secondary return mostly intact, but neither were particularly great last season, so new defensive coordinator John Chavus will have plenty to keep himself busy with.

They also have to replace kicker Colt David, who I swear has been there since I was in high school, but still have Trindon Holliday to return kicks, which is a nice thing to have.

I maintain that LSU is on its way down and the fans will want Miles out by the end of next year, but they should be pretty good this season.

Here’s the schedule:

Sept. 5: at Washington
The Tigers have made a living out of getting Pac-10 teams when they’re not very good over the past decade. But, while it’s such a longshot it’s probably not even on the Vegas board, I could see in the wildest of wild scenarios an upset here.

Sept. 12: Vanderbilt
This isn’t the cakewalk it once was, but LSU should win.

Sept. 19: Louisiana-Lafayette
The Tigers give their in-state brethren a nice paycheck and then beat them to death. How altruistic.

Sept. 26: at Mississippi State
Super-mild upset potential here, but LSU should win handily.

Oct. 3: at Georgia
I never thought I’d see the day where an SEC team played three of its first five on the road. Anyway, as I’ve said numerous times I’m not a big believer in Georgia this year. Tigers get some measure of revenge from last year’s debacle in Death Valley.

Oct. 10: Florida
LSU should be 5-0 heading into this one. Florida will beat them enough for two losses.

Oct. 24: Auburn
While Auburn’s not going to be very good this year, this is probably the only time they’re going to get just manhandled.

Oct. 31: Tulane
Rivalry renewed. LSU really should be playing Tulane in New Orleans every year for the next decade or so to help them after all their Katrina problems.

Nov. 7: at Alabama
The Tide will struggle early, but should have their act together by this point and will send Miles packing.

Nov. 14: Louisiana Tech
More Louisiana fun!

Nov. 21: at Ole Miss
LSU seems to play better in this series when the game’s in Oxford, and vice versa, but I think Ole Miss wins here. But more on that when we get to the Rebels.

Nov. 28: Arkansas
Maybe with the game moved away from Friday weird things will stop happening when these two play.

The only sure loss on this list is Florida, but they’ll drop two more (Alabama and/or Ole Miss or an upset) and put together a 9-3 season.