COTTRELL COLUMN: Bracketology for Dummies

By Tim Cottrell

Published: March 18, 2008

Many of you are probably pouring through every college basketball-related Web site you can find, trying to find that one statistical edge that will win you your March Madness pool and the respect of your peers.

Not me.

You see, I used to be that guy. At one time in my life, I watched the last three or four weeks of college basketball season until my eyes started sinking in, pored over statistics, looked for trends and probably would’ve consulted a psychic if I could’ve afforded it.

What did it get me?

It took me five years to even get the national champion right.

So over the last few years, I’ve taken a much more laid-back approach to picking my bracket, and while it still hasn’t gotten me a win, it’s gotten me close enough to virtually taste the money on one occasion.

What’s my secret? It’s simple.

Just follow the season closely enough to get a decent feel for the teams you feel like have a shot and don’t, and have a good enough sense of history to know what the potential pitfalls are in the bracket.

So in the last few years, I’ve developed a few basic questions, and then I go from there.

So now, I present to you, the “Tim Cottrell System for Finishing Just High Enough to Not Get Paid Back in Your Pool.”

Who are the studs?
There are plenty of candidates this season, but as best as I can tell there are only two teams you should really be confident enough to put your hard-earned money on.

The first is North Carolina. The Heels can run or play the half-court game, and they’re good enough defensively to win on an off night.

The second is UCLA. While no one will proclaim them the most exciting team in history to watch, it really doesn’t matter how well you shoot when you play defense the way they do.

And since the Bruins now have Kevin Love to help clog up the middle, a Region they should have little problem getting out of and a hefty coaching advantage over any potential opponent in the Final Four, they’re my pick to bring home the hardware.

Who’s good enough to make a run?
I see two good candidates for this one, and both are in the South Region.

Pittsburgh plays defense about as well as UCLA, and comes into the tournament hot. They should get to the Sweet 16 without much problem, and I could see them getting past Memphis into the Elite Eight.

Unfortunately for them, I also see the No. 3 seed in that region, Stanford, as an even better candidate to get to the Final Four.

The Cardinal come from the best conference, have some quality wins and play smart basketball. They’re my sleeper pick to get to San Antonio.

Which conference should I ride?
This year it’s the Pac-10, without question. All six of its entrants have a very good shot of at the very least getting out of the first round, and you should see at least three or four in the Sweet 16.

Also don’t sleep on the Big East.

There’s something to be said for playing through a war throughout your conference schedule, and no teams had to battle as much as the ones in those two conferences.

Who are the head-case teams?
Not that this is groundbreaking, but it’s a good rule of thumb to not stake your money or pride on some team that you never know what you’re going to get out of.

This year, however, is problematic in that regard.

After the top three or four seeds in each region, virtually everyone is a bit on the Jekyll and Hyde side.

And this rule is giving me fits with the Indiana-Arkansas first-round matchup and potential Vanderbilt-Clemson matchup in the second round.

Other good candidates for this rule include anyone from the Big Ten (especially Michigan State) and West Virginia.

Who’s the potential darling?
I don’t see a whole lot of chances for a big run from some team none of us have ever heard of this year. There won’t be a Gonzaga or George Mason-type run in 2008.

However, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Georgia find a way to get to the Sweet 16.

The Bulldogs got a decent draw with a floundering Xavier team that’s ripe for an upset in the first round, and a potential matchup with Purdue in the second round.

So there you have it.

These rules have served me well in recent years, and I can only hope they help to make this year’s Big Dance fun for you all the way up until the end.

And, hey, based on my performance during football season going totally against my picks might be a better way to go.

Tim Cottrell is sports designer of the Opelika-Auburn News. He can be reached at 737-2511 or .